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Predicting the black market in e-cigarettes
http://antithrlies.com/2014/07/04/predicting-the-black-market-in-e-cigarettes/
Posted on 4 July 2014 by Carl V Phillips
by Carl V Phillips
The anti-tobacco movement is fundamentally dishonest and unethical, and it is also led by minimally-skilled people who isolate themselves in an echo chamber that avoids scientific review. As a result, it is frequently difficult to determine whether one of their false scientific claims is an intentional lie or blatant ignorance. Most of their epidemiologic claims seem to fall into the former category. But most of their economics-related lies seem to stem from an utter failure to understand even first-semester level economics. Snowdon and I (mostly at EP-ology including a few days ago, but also on the present blog) have documented this extensively.
One of their fundamental failures in this area is the apparent belief that — contrary to all we know from the results of the Drug War, to say nothing of all other observations of supply and demand — that bans will eliminate supply even when there is huge demand. One critical appearance of this ignorance relates to the current U.S. FDA draft regulation of e-cigarettes. FDA has clearly made no attempt to consider what the real — as opposed to fantasy idealized — results of their proposed e-cigarette ban would be. It is not difficult to understand that there will be a continuing market in e-cigarettes — mostly not actually “black” despite the shorthand in the title.
As has been extensively documented by CASAA (based on what is effectively an out-and-out admission of the point by FDA), the proposed regulations would allow for FDA approval of only a dozen or two of e-cigarette products now on the market, which are probably on the order of 100,000. The potentially approved products are cigalikes made by the largest manufacturers, which are dispreferred by experienced vapers and are not as effective at promoting smoking cessation as higher-quality products.
So what happens to the others? FDA seems to want their ANTZ friends to believe they will disappear, though I am guessing that FDA knows better. But they do not seem to have really thought it through, or they do not care about the real consequences.
The standard ANTZ lie is that the market for tobacco products is created by the suppliers and not by demand. For anyone not living in that bizarro fantasy world, it should be apparent that continuing demand will result in continuing supply. The reality is that the products that exist now will continue to exist, and will result in a market that is far less regulated and safe than the current situation.
The nature of the continuing market
It is not difficult to predict the response to the proposed de facto ban by manufacturers and consumers. There are many smokers who will be denied the opportunity to quit due to the restriction in the open and legal market for higher-quality e-cigarettes. But there are hundreds of thousands of dedicated vapers already using refillable component systems in the USA, and there will be many more before the de facto ban takes effect after more than two years. Some will switch to the handful of cigalike products that can pass the paperwork burdens to get FDA approval (assuming FDA grants any approvals), but many – probably most – will not be interested in this lower-quality and more expensive option. They will have no difficulty in continuing to do what they do now, because this huge demand will continue to attract supply.
The continuing market for e-cigarettes in the USA, under the proposed regulations, will contrast with the minimal markets for banned or almost-banned low-risk tobacco products, such as snus in the European Union (EU). In the case of snus in the EU, the product is easily available for consumers who seek it, but the ban does appear to have reduced awareness and has kept this low-risk alternative from becoming popular among subpopulations who did not use it traditionally. By contrast, e-cigarettes are already very popular in the USA, there is an established strong social network associated with them, and there is near universal awareness of them. Moreover, because the proposed regulation is a backdoor ban that only regulates sales, and not a full-on ban that criminalizes acquisition, usage, or manufacture (absent sales), there will be no stigma or legal exposure in continuing to use and discuss the products openly.
http://antithrlies.com/2014/07/04/predicting-the-black-market-in-e-cigarettes/
Posted on 4 July 2014 by Carl V Phillips
by Carl V Phillips
The anti-tobacco movement is fundamentally dishonest and unethical, and it is also led by minimally-skilled people who isolate themselves in an echo chamber that avoids scientific review. As a result, it is frequently difficult to determine whether one of their false scientific claims is an intentional lie or blatant ignorance. Most of their epidemiologic claims seem to fall into the former category. But most of their economics-related lies seem to stem from an utter failure to understand even first-semester level economics. Snowdon and I (mostly at EP-ology including a few days ago, but also on the present blog) have documented this extensively.
One of their fundamental failures in this area is the apparent belief that — contrary to all we know from the results of the Drug War, to say nothing of all other observations of supply and demand — that bans will eliminate supply even when there is huge demand. One critical appearance of this ignorance relates to the current U.S. FDA draft regulation of e-cigarettes. FDA has clearly made no attempt to consider what the real — as opposed to fantasy idealized — results of their proposed e-cigarette ban would be. It is not difficult to understand that there will be a continuing market in e-cigarettes — mostly not actually “black” despite the shorthand in the title.
As has been extensively documented by CASAA (based on what is effectively an out-and-out admission of the point by FDA), the proposed regulations would allow for FDA approval of only a dozen or two of e-cigarette products now on the market, which are probably on the order of 100,000. The potentially approved products are cigalikes made by the largest manufacturers, which are dispreferred by experienced vapers and are not as effective at promoting smoking cessation as higher-quality products.
So what happens to the others? FDA seems to want their ANTZ friends to believe they will disappear, though I am guessing that FDA knows better. But they do not seem to have really thought it through, or they do not care about the real consequences.
The standard ANTZ lie is that the market for tobacco products is created by the suppliers and not by demand. For anyone not living in that bizarro fantasy world, it should be apparent that continuing demand will result in continuing supply. The reality is that the products that exist now will continue to exist, and will result in a market that is far less regulated and safe than the current situation.
The nature of the continuing market
It is not difficult to predict the response to the proposed de facto ban by manufacturers and consumers. There are many smokers who will be denied the opportunity to quit due to the restriction in the open and legal market for higher-quality e-cigarettes. But there are hundreds of thousands of dedicated vapers already using refillable component systems in the USA, and there will be many more before the de facto ban takes effect after more than two years. Some will switch to the handful of cigalike products that can pass the paperwork burdens to get FDA approval (assuming FDA grants any approvals), but many – probably most – will not be interested in this lower-quality and more expensive option. They will have no difficulty in continuing to do what they do now, because this huge demand will continue to attract supply.
The continuing market for e-cigarettes in the USA, under the proposed regulations, will contrast with the minimal markets for banned or almost-banned low-risk tobacco products, such as snus in the European Union (EU). In the case of snus in the EU, the product is easily available for consumers who seek it, but the ban does appear to have reduced awareness and has kept this low-risk alternative from becoming popular among subpopulations who did not use it traditionally. By contrast, e-cigarettes are already very popular in the USA, there is an established strong social network associated with them, and there is near universal awareness of them. Moreover, because the proposed regulation is a backdoor ban that only regulates sales, and not a full-on ban that criminalizes acquisition, usage, or manufacture (absent sales), there will be no stigma or legal exposure in continuing to use and discuss the products openly.