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What’s the Future of TikTok if U.S. Ban Goes Through? Here's What the Experts are Saying

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Over the last few years, the United States government has pressured ByteDance to sell off its widely popular video-sharing app TikTok under the threat of it being banned entirely. The topic heated up again that would potentially ban the platform if it isn’t sold, and while it remains a toss-up as to whether or not the Senate will vote to pass the bill, there is a very real possibility that TikTok could be banned in the United States.


So, what will happen if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate pass a bill that could ban TikTok? President Joe Biden has signaled that he will sign a bill that bans TikTok into law, should it pass in both chambers of Congress. But even after it becomes law, what happens to TikTok? How long will it take for the ban to go into effect? Would ByteDance cave and sell the app to another company? Or would it just exit the US market entirely? IGN spoke to several experts from legal and cybersecurity backgrounds to answer these questions and figure out what would happen next if the bill becomes law.

What is the TikTok ban bill?


In the original bill passed last month, the Protecting Americans From Foreign Adversaries Act prohibited “distributing, maintaining, or providing internet hosting services for a foreign adversary controlled application.” Despite the language implying multiple applications, the bill targets TikTok and its parent company, ByteDance. Yet, that bill never reached a vote in the Senate.


Though the standalone TikTok ban bill went nowhere after passing in the House of Representatives, a new bill that bundles foreign aid and a ban on the app is getting fast-tracked into Congress. An emergency vote is set to happen in the House on April 20th, and a vote in the Senate will happen as early as next week. This second bill is more likely to determine the fate of TikTok, given it combines a ban on TikTok and foreign aid to Ukraine and Israel, two countries currently in ongoing wars with Russia and Hamas.

Should this second bill become law, ByteDance will have nine months to allow users to export their data from the app. Beyond that, ByteDance would need to sell the app to someone else, most likely a company or investor based in the U.S., or risk being banned in one of its largest markets in the country.

TikTok has already been restricted in some places. The app is banned from being installed on government-owed smartphones on the federal level and in over 30 states in the U.S., including Florida, Maryland, and Wisconsin, for employees to use/or install on government-issued devices. Several universities, including Arizona State University, Morgan State University, and the University of Iowa, have banned using campus Wi-Fi and university-owned computers to gain access to TikTok. One state – Montana – is trying and ban it entirely, though the law is still being contested in court.

So why is a TikTok ban a point of contention? Since 2019, the U.S. government has alleged that TikTok’s parent company is a national security concern. This ranges from things such as the company censoring content to allegations that the Chinese government is collecting user data, as ByteDance is based in China. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have tried to ban TikTok. Ironically, Biden joined TikTok as part of its re-election campaign efforts before the 2024 Presidential election.

What do the experts say?


Joel Thayer, the President of Digital Progress Institute, a bipartisan think tank specializing in tech and telecom policy, told IGN in an interview that a ban on TikTok “merely implements foreign ownership restrictions” and that this bill is no different from previous actions that the U.S. government has done with restricting foreign ownership.

“Indeed, we have applied foreign ownership restrictions for telecommunications services, broadcasters, banking, energy, and the list goes on,” Thayer explained. “For instance, we don’t let the KGB own CBS given the national security implications. The House bill is no different than that.”

One of these examples Thayer broadly mentions includes Huawei, a Chinese tech company known for making smartphones. It’s one of five Chinese-owned companies that the U.S. has banned both the sale and import of new communications equipment.

We have applied foreign ownership restrictions for telecommunications services, broadcasters, banking, energy, and the list goes on”

Yet national security concerns are just one point of contention regarding banning TikTok. Those who oppose this bill say it is unconstitutional because it violates free speech. Thayer's rebuttal is that the concerns of free speech violations fall flat because TikTok collects user data and has foreign ownership that is not protected under the First Amendment.

As for privacy concerns, Thayer says that TikTok has a history of violating American privacy laws. One example is in 2019 when TikTok was fined $5.7 million for violating the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA), which aims to protect the privacy of children ages 13 or under by requesting parental consent for collecting or using personal data for these underage users.

Though some argue that banning TikTok would be a violation of the First Amendment, among those is lawyer Douglas E. Mirell, who is a Partner at Greenberg Glusker’s Litigation Group. Mirell argues that an outright ban would “likely be deemed a prior restraint upon speech and upon the press that would be presumptively unconstitutional under the First Amendment,” citing legal precedents from landmark Supreme Court cases NYT v. United States and Near v. Minnesota as some relevant example.

Mirell also says that Congress and the president need to be mindful when proposing new laws that would “deprive individuals or entities of the right to speak” when asked what implications a ban would have from a platform regulation, data privacy, and global tech perspective.

Peter K. Jackson, a Greenberg Glusker’s Intellectual Property Group lawyer, agrees with Merill. Like his colleague, Jackson argues that a TikTok ban in the U.S. would impact the First Amendment and any platform hosting the app. “The law doesn’t set a level playing field or even articulate any problematic data practices,” Jackson explained when asked if there would be similar suits in other countries to exercise similar actions. “It’s hard to imagine most other countries following suit if for no other reason than it would anger China tremendously.”

What if a TikTok ban bill becomes law?


Let’s imagine the bill becomes law and TikTok is actually banned. App stores like Apple and Google would have to delist TikTok from their storefronts or face repercussions. Now, this would not stop users who already have TikTok installed on their devices; we have seen similar situations where an app or video game was delisted, but those that kept it uninstalled could still use it… or sell the device the app is installed on for an absurd amount of money on a third-party site like eBay. In the case of the latter, eventually, the app could stop working as future updates would make the app unusable.


In such a scenario, cybersecurity expert Marijus Briedis also says that the demand for VPNs will increase, citing similar app bans in other countries. “For example, last year, the number of installs of the top 10 VPN applications increased by more than 400% in Italy after the ban on ChatGPT in this country.

Among other things, PornHub has been banned in several states, most recently Texas. After the ban went into effect, demand for VPNs increased by over 280%, according to a report by Newsweek.

VPNs can only do so much if the app is banned and removed from online storefronts. Needless to say, watching TikTok on a web browser is not the most convenient way to use the platform

So, let’s say ByteDance does sell TikTok to someone else. Is there even any interest? Unsurprisingly, yes, there is. Considering TikTok’s growth over the last several years, including surpassing Google in 2021 to become the most popular website of that year, several investors have been preparing for this scenario, including Bobby Kotick, ex-CEO of Activision Blizzard.

Jackson can only really explain how the sale of TikTok might affect things like content moderation policies and user base once a buyer or licensee is set in place. However, whoever buys the app “should be wary of an arrangement that technically satisfies what the pending legislation requires but fails to limit the processing of U.S. user data in China or by ByteDance.”

When asked who he considers a potential buyer, he said that ByteDance may not even sell TikTok outright but license the app to someone else, theorizing that ByteDance may license TikTok “for operation by a Brazilian or European entity” in the United States before it sells outright.

“The legislation just says the business operating TikTok in the U.S. can’t be ultimately owned or controlled by a ByteDance entity or any company ‘controlled’ by a foreign adversary,” Jackson explains. “Moreover, nothing in the legislation would prevent a new U.S. operator of TikTok from transferring U.S. user data to ByteDance or China.”

In the midst of the contentious debate surrounding the potential ban of TikTok in the United States, the 21st Century Peace through Strength Act is a pivotal moment in tech policy as governments weigh the impact of banning apps on national security and free speech.

One way or another, TikTok's fate hangs in the balance.


Taylor is a Reporter at IGN. You can follow her on Twitter @TayNixster.

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