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https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...e-dont-know-if-e-cigs-lead-kids-to-real-cigs/
The buzziest finding: Compared with people who hadn’t used e-cigarettes before the first survey, those who had were about eight times as likely to progress to trying a tobacco cigarette by the time of the second survey.
Those startling numbers — an 8x multiplier and 37.5 percent conversion rate — were the kind that made their way into the journal’s press releaseand the news stories. And as press releases go so goes overhyped journalism. If only the numbers were worthy of the headlines.
To understand why they’re not, let’s look at where that big 37.5 percent number comes from. All those “nonsusceptibles” who said they had tried e-cigarettes on the first survey? There were only 16 of them (2.3 percent of 694). And a grand total of six of those 16 people started smoking during the one-year period between the first and second surveys. Voila, six out of 16 makes 37.5 percent — it’s a big number that comes from a small number, which makes it a dubious one.
So because six people started smoking, news reports alleged that e-cigs were a gateway to analog cigs. The study could have just as easily been framed another way: Ten times as many people who hadn’t vaped became smokers as those who’d used e-cigarettes. (Sixty-five of the 678 “nonsusceptibles” who had never vaped eventually took a puff of a traditional cigarette.)
The media does the public no favors when it presents a single study (especially a small one like this) as gospel, rather than just a small addition to the amassing evidence. After spending more than 40 minutes on the phone with Primack, I’m convinced of two things — his intentions were noble, but his study does little to answer the question at hand: Are e-cigarettes a gateway to smoking among kids and teens? Even if the numbers in the study were larger, statistical analysis can’t tell you whether the data you collected is the right data for answering your question. Here the answer is clearly no. The survey’s respondents weren’t all fresh-faced adolescents, many were older teens and 20-somethings (the average age of those who’d tried e-cigarettes was 19.5), and it’s not possible to verify the accuracy of their self-reported smoking histories.
So, Ten times as many people who hadn’t vaped became Tobacco Cigarette Smokers.
But Somehow that equaled this headline on TV News stations across America:
"E-Cigarette Smoking Gateway To The Real Thing, Study Finds"
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/09/08/e-cigarette-smoking-gateway-to-the-real-thing-study-finds/
This is what happens when the fuckheads at the FDA PAY people to "Play Science" - 5150
The buzziest finding: Compared with people who hadn’t used e-cigarettes before the first survey, those who had were about eight times as likely to progress to trying a tobacco cigarette by the time of the second survey.
Those startling numbers — an 8x multiplier and 37.5 percent conversion rate — were the kind that made their way into the journal’s press releaseand the news stories. And as press releases go so goes overhyped journalism. If only the numbers were worthy of the headlines.
To understand why they’re not, let’s look at where that big 37.5 percent number comes from. All those “nonsusceptibles” who said they had tried e-cigarettes on the first survey? There were only 16 of them (2.3 percent of 694). And a grand total of six of those 16 people started smoking during the one-year period between the first and second surveys. Voila, six out of 16 makes 37.5 percent — it’s a big number that comes from a small number, which makes it a dubious one.
So because six people started smoking, news reports alleged that e-cigs were a gateway to analog cigs. The study could have just as easily been framed another way: Ten times as many people who hadn’t vaped became smokers as those who’d used e-cigarettes. (Sixty-five of the 678 “nonsusceptibles” who had never vaped eventually took a puff of a traditional cigarette.)
The media does the public no favors when it presents a single study (especially a small one like this) as gospel, rather than just a small addition to the amassing evidence. After spending more than 40 minutes on the phone with Primack, I’m convinced of two things — his intentions were noble, but his study does little to answer the question at hand: Are e-cigarettes a gateway to smoking among kids and teens? Even if the numbers in the study were larger, statistical analysis can’t tell you whether the data you collected is the right data for answering your question. Here the answer is clearly no. The survey’s respondents weren’t all fresh-faced adolescents, many were older teens and 20-somethings (the average age of those who’d tried e-cigarettes was 19.5), and it’s not possible to verify the accuracy of their self-reported smoking histories.
So, Ten times as many people who hadn’t vaped became Tobacco Cigarette Smokers.
But Somehow that equaled this headline on TV News stations across America:
"E-Cigarette Smoking Gateway To The Real Thing, Study Finds"
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2015/09/08/e-cigarette-smoking-gateway-to-the-real-thing-study-finds/
This is what happens when the fuckheads at the FDA PAY people to "Play Science" - 5150
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